30%. 50%.
Use a specialized hardware programmer (like a Teensy, Raspberry Pi, or dedicated flashing tool) to desolder or clip onto the SFLASH chip. Dump the current NOR/NAND flash memory.
A new jailbreak for 13.02+ would allow homebrew and game backups without downgrading, similar to 9.00’s capabilities. Downgrade will never be needed.
If your goal is to wait for a potential future software exploit for 13.02, disconnect your console from the internet immediately. Turn off "Automatic Downloads" in your system settings. A lower firmware version always has a higher statistical chance of receiving a public exploit than a newer one. Summary Warning
High
By using advanced hardware tools (like a Teensy or Raspberry Pi Pico) and performing micro-soldering on the console's Syscon and NOR chips, technicians can trick the console into switching back to the previous firmware slot.